2026 Price Analysis of Copper Materials
Source:The SiteAuthor:admin Addtime:2026/1/11 Click:0
In 2026, the overall copper price will show a trend of high volatility and a shift in the center of gravity upwards. Institutions are generally bullish, but there are differences on short-term corrections. The core operating range of LME copper futures throughout the year is likely to be between 10,800-15,000 US dollars per ton, and the corresponding Shanghai copper price will be approximately 83,000-130,000 yuan per ton. The following is an analysis from multiple dimensions:
Constrained copper mine output: The global increase in copper mine production in 2026 is approximately 570,000 tons (a growth rate of 3%), which is far lower than the expansion rate of smelting capacity (the global 新增 crude smelting capacity is 1.5 million tons). The supply-demand gap is expected to widen to 330,000 tons. At the same time, mining disturbance risks occur frequently in major producing areas such as Chile and Africa, and the decline in ore grade and insufficient capital expenditure further restrict supply.
Low processing fees: The long-term TC price of copper concentrate in 2026 is expected to be in the range of -11 USD/ton to 0 USD/ton, which is at a five-year low, reflecting the tight supply at the mining end and the pressure on smelting profits.
Constrained supply of scrap copper: The implementation of the U.S. scrap copper export control policy, coupled with the increase in scrap copper recycling costs under high copper prices, has limited the growth in scrap copper supply.
(2) Demand side: Emerging fields become the main drivers of growth
Driven by new energy and AI: The construction of new energy vehicles, energy storage, and data centers has a strong demand for copper. The copper usage of a new energy vehicle is about twice that of a traditional fuel vehicle, and AI-related infrastructure drives the growth of copper demand by more than 1% annually.
Recovery of traditional demand: With the start of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle and the global liquidity easing, it is expected to promote the recovery of demand in traditional industries such as real estate and home appliances.
U.S. strategic stockpiling: Under the expectation of U.S. tariffs, enterprises are hoarding copper inventories in advance, siphoning global copper resources, which exacerbates the tight market supply in the short term.
(3) Macroeconomic and policy factors
Easing monetary policy: The macro policies of major economies such as China and the United States are biased towards easing, which enhances the financial attribute of copper and supports copper prices.
Uncertainty in tariff policies: The results of the U.S. copper tariff investigation are expected to be announced in the second quarter of 2026. If implemented, it will change the global copper trade pattern and may trigger a price correction in the short term.
Geopolitical risks: Factors such as international trade frictions and regional conflicts may affect the production and transportation of copper, exacerbating price fluctuations.
